{
  "schema_version": "1.0.0",
  "title": "Project Selection independent military recruitment intelligence library",
  "description": "Reviewed, historic UK Ministry of Defence reported summary tables; not live data or an acceptance-rate calculator.",
  "release": {
    "version": "1.0.0",
    "editorialReviewed": "2026-10-16",
    "updateMode": "human-approved-repository-release",
    "origin": "Ministry of Defence accredited official quarterly personnel statistics",
    "licence": "https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/",
    "rounding": "Numbers presented to nearest 10 in official headline tables; calculated differences inherit rounding uncertainty.",
    "isLiveFeed": false,
    "asOf": "2026-07-01",
    "sourceIds": [
      "mod-2026-july",
      "mod-2025-october",
      "mod-2025-january"
    ]
  },
  "metric_definitions": {
    "total": {
      "label": "All Armed Forces personnel",
      "short": "Total personnel",
      "definition": "The reported combined strength across UK Regular Forces, Gurkhas, Volunteer Reserves and Other Personnel. Not the size of the Regular Forces.",
      "unit": "people"
    },
    "regular": {
      "label": "UK Regular Forces personnel",
      "short": "UK Regular Forces",
      "definition": "Full-time UK Regular personnel as defined in the report, excluding Gurkhas, Volunteer Reserves and specified other personnel categories.",
      "unit": "people"
    },
    "reserve": {
      "label": "Volunteer Reserve personnel",
      "short": "Volunteer Reserves",
      "definition": "Volunteer Reserve strength, not a count of trained Reserve personnel and not necessarily the same as Future Reserves 2020 measures.",
      "unit": "people"
    },
    "trained": {
      "label": "Combined full-time trained / trade-trained strength",
      "short": "Trained / trade-trained",
      "definition": "Royal Navy/Marines and RAF full-time trained strength PLUS Army full-time trade-trained strength; includes eligible Gurkhas and relevant FTRS elements. Not directly comparable to a Regular Force subtotal.",
      "unit": "people"
    }
  },
  "services": [
    {
      "id": "all",
      "name": "All three services / reported total"
    },
    {
      "id": "navy",
      "name": "Royal Navy & Royal Marines"
    },
    {
      "id": "army",
      "name": "British Army"
    },
    {
      "id": "raf",
      "name": "Royal Air Force"
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "mod-2026-july",
      "name": "MoD Quarterly Service Personnel Statistics: 1 July 2026 (revised)",
      "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-2026/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-1-july-2026",
      "published": "2026-09-03",
      "revised": "2026-09-23",
      "tables": [
        "Table 1: UK Forces Strength",
        "Table 2: Full-time trained / trade-trained strength",
        "Section 6: 12-month Regular intake/outflow"
      ],
      "precision": "rounded-to-nearest-10",
      "note": "This September 2026 revision corrects published figures and commentary; the dates in its historical table may supersede older reports."
    },
    {
      "id": "mod-2025-october",
      "name": "MoD Quarterly Service Personnel Statistics: 1 October 2025",
      "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-2025/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-1-october-2025",
      "published": "2025-11-27",
      "revised": "2025-11-27",
      "tables": [
        "Table 1: UK Forces Strength",
        "Table 2: Full-time trained / trade-trained strength",
        "Key Points: 12-month Regular intake/outflow"
      ],
      "precision": "rounded-to-nearest-10",
      "note": "Provides October 2024 and April/October 2025 observations omitted from the July 2026 summary table. Cross-publication historical comparisons are approximate."
    },
    {
      "id": "mod-2025-january",
      "name": "MoD Quarterly Service Personnel Statistics: 1 January 2025",
      "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-2025/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-1-january-2025",
      "published": "2025-02-20",
      "revised": null,
      "tables": [
        "Key Points: 12-month Regular intake/outflow"
      ],
      "precision": "rounded-to-nearest-10",
      "note": "Used only for the 12 months ended 31 December 2024 intake/outflow figures, not the mixed-precision January 2025 strength table."
    }
  ],
  "strength_snapshots": [
    {
      "date": "2023-07-01",
      "source": "mod-2026-july",
      "all": {
        "total": 185980,
        "regular": 140300,
        "reserve": 33210,
        "trained": 132350
      },
      "navy": {
        "total": 38220,
        "regular": 32360,
        "reserve": 3370,
        "trained": 29220
      },
      "army": {
        "total": 111650,
        "regular": 76220,
        "reserve": 26760,
        "trained": 74110
      },
      "raf": {
        "total": 36110,
        "regular": 31710,
        "reserve": 3080,
        "trained": 29010
      }
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-07-01",
      "source": "mod-2026-july",
      "all": {
        "total": 181320,
        "regular": 136520,
        "reserve": 32140,
        "trained": 128370
      },
      "navy": {
        "total": 37330,
        "regular": 31670,
        "reserve": 3210,
        "trained": 28420
      },
      "army": {
        "total": 109090,
        "regular": 74300,
        "reserve": 25930,
        "trained": 71820
      },
      "raf": {
        "total": 34900,
        "regular": 30560,
        "reserve": 3000,
        "trained": 28130
      }
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-10-01",
      "source": "mod-2025-october",
      "all": {
        "total": 181550,
        "regular": 136860,
        "reserve": 32050,
        "trained": 127440
      },
      "navy": {
        "total": 37500,
        "regular": 31810,
        "reserve": 3240,
        "trained": 28120
      },
      "army": {
        "total": 109240,
        "regular": 74610,
        "reserve": 25810,
        "trained": 71350
      },
      "raf": {
        "total": 34800,
        "regular": 30440,
        "reserve": 3000,
        "trained": 27970
      }
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-04-01",
      "source": "mod-2025-october",
      "all": {
        "total": 181890,
        "regular": 137000,
        "reserve": 31900,
        "trained": 126610
      },
      "navy": {
        "total": 37900,
        "regular": 32150,
        "reserve": 3240,
        "trained": 28040
      },
      "army": {
        "total": 109160,
        "regular": 74400,
        "reserve": 25690,
        "trained": 70860
      },
      "raf": {
        "total": 34830,
        "regular": 30450,
        "reserve": 2980,
        "trained": 27710
      }
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-07-01",
      "source": "mod-2026-july",
      "all": {
        "total": 180780,
        "regular": 136030,
        "reserve": 31780,
        "trained": 126180
      },
      "navy": {
        "total": 37680,
        "regular": 31990,
        "reserve": 3170,
        "trained": 27950
      },
      "army": {
        "total": 108180,
        "regular": 73490,
        "reserve": 25640,
        "trained": 70640
      },
      "raf": {
        "total": 34920,
        "regular": 30550,
        "reserve": 2960,
        "trained": 27590
      }
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-10-01",
      "source": "mod-2025-october",
      "all": {
        "total": 182060,
        "regular": 137100,
        "reserve": 31940,
        "trained": 125680
      },
      "navy": {
        "total": 37880,
        "regular": 32160,
        "reserve": 3210,
        "trained": 27820
      },
      "army": {
        "total": 109060,
        "regular": 74270,
        "reserve": 25710,
        "trained": 70300
      },
      "raf": {
        "total": 35130,
        "regular": 30670,
        "reserve": 3020,
        "trained": 27560
      }
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-01-01",
      "source": "mod-2026-july",
      "all": {
        "total": 182050,
        "regular": 136960,
        "reserve": 32030,
        "trained": 126440
      },
      "navy": {
        "total": 38130,
        "regular": 32380,
        "reserve": 3200,
        "trained": 28140
      },
      "army": {
        "total": 108620,
        "regular": 73790,
        "reserve": 25770,
        "trained": 70630
      },
      "raf": {
        "total": 35300,
        "regular": 30790,
        "reserve": 3060,
        "trained": 27670
      }
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-01",
      "source": "mod-2026-july",
      "all": {
        "total": 183410,
        "regular": 137970,
        "reserve": 32030,
        "trained": 126740
      },
      "navy": {
        "total": 38300,
        "regular": 32520,
        "reserve": 3230,
        "trained": 28180
      },
      "army": {
        "total": 109480,
        "regular": 74370,
        "reserve": 25730,
        "trained": 70760
      },
      "raf": {
        "total": 35630,
        "regular": 31080,
        "reserve": 3070,
        "trained": 27800
      }
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-01",
      "source": "mod-2026-july",
      "all": {
        "total": 182980,
        "regular": 137480,
        "reserve": 32130,
        "trained": 127060
      },
      "navy": {
        "total": 38230,
        "regular": 32430,
        "reserve": 3260,
        "trained": 28260
      },
      "army": {
        "total": 108780,
        "regular": 73660,
        "reserve": 25780,
        "trained": 70950
      },
      "raf": {
        "total": 35980,
        "regular": 31390,
        "reserve": 3100,
        "trained": 27850
      }
    }
  ],
  "rolling_regular_intake_outflow": [
    {
      "periodEnd": "2024-12-31",
      "periodStart": "2024-01-01",
      "source": "mod-2025-january",
      "intake": 12850,
      "outflow": 14830
    },
    {
      "periodEnd": "2025-06-30",
      "periodStart": "2024-07-01",
      "source": "mod-2026-july",
      "intake": 13520,
      "outflow": 14020
    },
    {
      "periodEnd": "2025-09-30",
      "periodStart": "2024-10-01",
      "source": "mod-2025-october",
      "intake": 14100,
      "outflow": 13860
    },
    {
      "periodEnd": "2026-06-30",
      "periodStart": "2025-07-01",
      "source": "mod-2026-july",
      "intake": 14500,
      "outflow": 13050
    }
  ],
  "interpretation_limits": [
    "These are published rounded MoD summary values, not exact personnel counts. Some rounded service categories do not add precisely to a reported combined total.",
    "Observations draw from different publication vintages. Historical series can be revised; source provenance is attached to every point.",
    "Point-in-time personnel strength and rolling 12-month intake/outflow describe different populations and time intervals. Their differences need not reconcile.",
    "The combined trained/trade-trained measure includes some categories outside UK Regulars and uses different Army training definitions. It is not a candidate-readiness measure.",
    "Applications are application records, not unique people, and definitions differ between services. Never aggregate application records across services or divide by intake to imply acceptance rates.",
    "The Royal Navy and Royal Marines are reported together. Recruitment policy change dates do not prove that a subsequent staffing trend was caused by that change."
  ]
}