{
  "schema_version": "1.0.0",
  "name": "Project Selection independent UK military research, October 2026",
  "edition": "2026-10-16",
  "isLiveFeed": false,
  "official_source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-2026/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-1-july-2026",
  "older_source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-2022/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-1-july-2022",
  "licence": "https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/",
  "population": "UK Regular Forces",
  "headcount_comparisons": [
    {
      "service": "Royal Navy / Royal Marines",
      "start_date": "2025-07-01",
      "end_date": "2026-07-01",
      "rounded_first": 31990,
      "rounded_last": 32430,
      "difference": 440,
      "percent": 1.3754298218193186,
      "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-2026/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-1-july-2026"
    },
    {
      "service": "British Army",
      "start_date": "2025-07-01",
      "end_date": "2026-07-01",
      "rounded_first": 73490,
      "rounded_last": 73660,
      "difference": 170,
      "percent": 0.23132398965845694,
      "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-2026/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-1-july-2026"
    },
    {
      "service": "Royal Air Force",
      "start_date": "2025-07-01",
      "end_date": "2026-07-01",
      "rounded_first": 30550,
      "rounded_last": 31390,
      "difference": 840,
      "percent": 2.7495908346972175,
      "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-2026/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-1-july-2026"
    },
    {
      "service": "All UK Regular Forces",
      "start_date": "2025-07-01",
      "end_date": "2026-07-01",
      "rounded_first": 136030,
      "rounded_last": 137480,
      "difference": 1450,
      "percent": 1.0659413364698964,
      "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-2026/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-1-july-2026"
    }
  ],
  "longer_comparison": {
    "date_start": "2021-07-01",
    "reported_start": 149230,
    "date_end": "2026-07-01",
    "reported_end": 137480,
    "difference": -11750
  },
  "raf_share_of_rounded_rebound_percent": 57.93103448275862,
  "flow_periods": [
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "intake": 15250,
      "outflow": 14310,
      "arithmetic_from_rounded": 940,
      "official_source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-2020/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-1-july-2020"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "intake": 17350,
      "outflow": 12870,
      "arithmetic_from_rounded": 4480,
      "official_source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-2021/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-1-july-2021"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "intake": 12600,
      "outflow": 15520,
      "arithmetic_from_rounded": -2920,
      "official_source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-2022/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-1-july-2022"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "intake": 10470,
      "outflow": 16460,
      "arithmetic_from_rounded": -5990,
      "official_source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-2023/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-1-july-2023"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "intake": 11940,
      "outflow": 15710,
      "arithmetic_from_rounded": -3770,
      "official_source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-2024/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-1-july-2024"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "intake": 13520,
      "outflow": 14020,
      "arithmetic_from_rounded": -500,
      "official_source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-2025/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-1-july-2025"
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "intake": 14500,
      "outflow": 13050,
      "arithmetic_from_rounded": 1450,
      "official_source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-2026/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-1-july-2026"
    }
  ],
  "rounding_note": "Official 2026 narrative +1460 is distinct from +1450 based on two rounded printed values.",
  "limitations": [
    "Rounded published figures, not exact people",
    "Personnel headcount change is not recruitment intake",
    "Cannot infer selection/acceptance probabilities",
    "Royal Navy and Marines are one reported category",
    "Different statistical vintages are joined for historical comparisons"
  ],
  "downloads": [
    "https://projectselection.co.uk/data/press-strength-by-service-2017-2026.v1.csv",
    "https://projectselection.co.uk/data/press-regular-flow-margins-2020-2026.v1.csv",
    "https://projectselection.co.uk/data/press-regular-2026-graphic.svg"
  ]
}