UK Regular Forces:
joining versus leaving.
Published 12-month intake and total outflow show a net negative rounded gap in the year to June 2023 and a positive gap in the year to June 2026. A net movement is not a candidate selection pass rate.
UK Regular Forces intake and outflow
| Year ended | All Regular intake | All Regular outflow | Rounded arithmetic | MOD release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 15,250 | 14,310 | +940 | MOD 2020 ↗ |
| 2021 | 17,350 | 12,870 | +4,480 | MOD 2021 ↗ |
| 2022 | 12,600 | 15,520 | −2,920 | MOD 2022 ↗ |
| 2023 | 10,470 | 16,460 | −5,990 | MOD 2023 ↗ |
| 2024 | 11,940 | 15,710 | −3,770 | MOD 2024 ↗ |
| 2025 | 13,520 | 14,020 | −500 | MOD 2025 ↗ |
| 2026 | 14,500 | 13,050 | +1,450 | MOD 2026 ↗ |
Why do 2026 figures appear inconsistent?
The revised MOD report prints 14,500 joiners and 13,050 leavers. Subtraction produces +1,450, but the official narrative gives +1,460. This difference may be caused by calculation on unrounded underlying data; the underlying exact cell values are not supplied in the rounded table. Report the distinction rather than altering either number.
How not to use this series
Application records are not unique people, intake is not a matched applicant cohort, and total outflow is distinct from the trained/trade-trained Voluntary Outflow metric. These seven windows do not measure the probability of passing any military selection, or establish why recruitment and attrition changed.
Read the voluntary-outflow evidence ↗Check common misleading interpretations ↗